The Latest Not-Romney

The latest Not-Romney to experience a surge in Iowa is Rick Santorum. Yes, that Rick Santorum. Personally I'm not a fan of Santorum (hence the link), but the fact of the matter is that I've been pretty steadfast in my belief that Romney is going to win the Republican nomination. The Iowa Caucus is a side show that gets way too much press coverage. The thing with the Iowa Caucus is that polls don't much matter. The point of a caucus is to get physical bodies into the caucus site and get them to stay there. The person with the most bodies present to cast a vote wins. A caucus is about having an organized physical presence in a state. Sure Santorum might have that in Iowa since he's practically lived there since August and he or Ron Paul might win in Iowa, but they can't win in the primary states. In the primary you need deep pockets and a state by state network. So Iowa is a side show. You get some press, but you can't count on any of it to win primaries in another state. In other states you have different issues and need a network and advertising to attract voters.

Right now the Republican Party is pretty much fractured. The coalition that was cobbled together to elect Reagan is falling apart. The Tea Party did that. I know a lot of people look at the Tea Party like it's a separate entity, but it never was. It was always the ultra-conservative wing of the Republican Party. They did a hostile takeover of the Republican Party in 2010. Our current Do Nothing Congress is the result. The Republican elite is behind Romney and will provide resources to push his candidacy. He's the most electable. The religious conservatives have rallied around their own set of candidates. The religious conservatives have rallied to, in order, Michelle Bachman, Rick Perry and now Rick Santorum. The Tea Party has been bouncing around Ron Paul, Herman Cain and Newt Gingrich. No way, no how is the Republican elite going to let the Tea Party choose the nominee. The Tea Party choice is a guaranteed loser. The religious conservative choice is a guaranteed loser. Want to lose moderate voters in mass? Choose someone who the Tea Party or religious conservatives drool over.

Over the years the Republican Party has become increasingly more conservative. When Newt Gingrich became Speaker of the House in the 1990s he was seen at that time as a conservative radical, but viewed in today's lens he's not all that radical. John Boehner when he was elected to Congress was seen as a conservative extremist beyond Newt Gingrich. Boehner was an outlier, but now he's considered moderate by Republican measures. Most of the Republican candidates have to jog to be "more conservative than thou." They have to move so far down the conservative spectrum to appeal to primary voters that they could never successfully job to the moderate middle in order to pick up moderate voters to clinch a victory. The Republican elite are cold and calculating and know this and they won't let an extremist win the primary.

The Tea Party was a useful tool to the Republican Party in 2010. It helped elect Republicans. The fact of the matter is that the elite in the Republican Party needed those foot soldiers and were happy to have them at the time. There remains a power struggle to be dealt with in the Republican Party between the Tea Party and the elites. The Tea Party represents the rank and file foot soldier, but the elite represents the money and hence real power. I expect that the elite will retain control over their party and when that happens I'm interested to see what the Tea Party's next move will be. I'm expecting them to be appropriate submissive to the authority figures of the party.

So Mitt Romney is going to be the Republican nominee. The rest is just a side show. Mitt has a steady 24% base to build on as the months roll onward. He has every advantage: a solid base, money, a national organization, and support from the monied elite. Top that off with nice hair and you have the Republican nominee. Just accept it.